The pulp market is significantly affected by seasonal fluctuations, and it is impacted by factors such as market demand, supply, production costs, and policy adjustments. As the fall approaches, market demand is expected to increase, and pulp prices are likely to rebound.
In August this year, the domestic pulp production was 2.298 million tons, up by 21.67 thousand tons from the previous month, an increase of 10.41%; of which the wood pulp production accounted for the largest share, with a production of 1.944 million tons, up by 20.45 thousand tons, an increase of 11.75%. The main reason for the increase in production was the optimistic market expectation for the wood pulp price in September, as it was believed that under the background of the demand peak season and consumption recovery, the pulp price was expected to continue to rise, which also prompted production enterprises to increase production to meet market demand.
In recent years, the import volume of pulp in China has remained at a high level. In July 2024, the pulp import volume was 2.32 million tons, down 14.6% year-on-year, while the import value was $1.585 billion, up 3.8% year-on-year. The cumulative import volume for the first seven months was 20.16 million tons, down 12,000 tons year-on-year, a decline of -0.01%. The decline in import volume in July was mainly due to weak domestic market demand, low prices, and inventory accumulation.
In August 2024, the forecast value of domestic pulp demand was 3.3 million tons, and the actual consumption of pulp was 3.315 million tons, and the actual consumption increased by 100,000 tons from the previous month, an increase of 3.11% from the previous month, and an increase of 209,000 tons from the previous year, an increase of 6.73%. After a period of downturn in the pulp market, starting from mid-August at any time, pulp futures prices have gradually rebounded, and the pessimistic sentiment of the pulp market has gradually faded, and the demand for pulp is expected to gradually pick up when the peak season is approaching.
Entering September, with the beginning of the new semester in autumn and the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays, the demand for pulp is expected to gradually increase, and will promote the demand for raw material replenishment, thus promoting the price of pulp. From the price index of coniferous pulp and broadleaf pulp in September over the past years, except for the impact of the economic environment in September 2021, the price index of coniferous pulp in September of other years is mostly on the rise. When the inventory trend is displayed in September, the main contract of pulp futures will show an upward trend.
Post time: Sep-24-2024